Friends To be clear, we have been cautious/bearish with regards to stocks (and bonds) since late 2021 when the Fed declared war on inflation. We said then and have reiterated for a year and a half that the Fed’s pivot towards tighter monetary policy was going to take...

Friends   Our first look at earnings reports was very interesting. Big banks like JP Morgan Chase and Citi had good numbers and their shares moved nicely higher. Wells Fargo and PNC Bank had decent numbers also, but their shares fared a lot worse. United Health...

Friends   The economy is slowing, corporate earnings are slipping, commercial real estate is on shaky grounds, consumers are spread thin, inflation is still pretty high, and the Fed is still tightening monetary policy. Did I mention that stocks moved higher...

Friends Despite concerns about, well, everything, stocks were able to hold serve once again today. Tomorrow’s CPI data is likely to be a market mover making today’s muted action completely understandable. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 98 points...

Friends   The big news over the weekend was oil production cuts announced by OPEC. This sent oil prices soaring to more than $80 per barrel. But the bulls were not to be deterred. Instead of shares of technology companies that led the way in the first quarter of...

Friends Despite constant turmoil stocks had a pretty good first quarter of 2023. The S&P 500 finished up nearly 7% while the Nasdaq was up a whopping 16%. Given the circumstances and the wild ride that the bond market was on in the first quarter, to me the...

Friends   The bulls continue to hold the high ground with one day left before the end of the quarter. We suspected that this would be a quiet week, at least data wise, and for the most part it has been. We have noted the market’s resilience this month given that...

Friends Once again, as we wait for the coming recession to unfold, stocks continue to drift higher. Volume has been light the last few trading sessions, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that stocks continue to defy the common narrative. It is a quiet week...

Friends As the banking industry appears to be calming, stocks mainly moved higher again today. The calls for recession are deafening at this point, and understandably so, but stocks have been stubbornly resilient (for the bears taste) over the past few weeks. Bond...

Friends Another day and another bank in the news. Today it was Deutsche Bank the giant German Bank. But interestingly the market that is seeing the most volatility these days is the bond market not the stock market. Bonds continue to move all over the place with the...

Friends Not surprisingly the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate a quarter of a point today. The range now stands at 4.75%-5%. Also, not surprisingly the Fed is hinting that they will be watching closely the consequences of the bank tremors we have felt in the last couple...

Friends   I have been asked several times in the last couple of days what I think the Fed will do tomorrow with regards to rates and messaging. I have felt since last week that the Fed “should” pause here simply because in my mind the banking/financial system is...

Friends Last weekend, government officials “implied” that deposits in U. S. banks, whatever amount, will be backed by the government. This weekend in the soap opera that is the banking industry we saw the shotgun wedding of Swiss giants UBS and Credit Suisse. In the...

Friends As we mentioned earlier in the week, after an event like we had with a couple of bank failures it is very likely that we will see heightened volatility in the markets. I mentioned that at least for a day market participants seemed to be calmed just a bit...

Friends   Stocks tumbled at the open once again despite the Swiss “helping out” Credit Suisse overnight. The ECB raising key interest rates by a half of a point added to the anxiety in early trading. But after the bank stocks took another leg down in the morning,...