Friends
Stocks continue to grind into quarter end, as traders wait for one more important data point Friday morning. We will get a look at the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index tomorrow morning, a price index which has been a favorite of the Fed with regards to their views and policy on inflation.
In the meantime, as for today by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 36 points to finish the day at 39,164. The S&P 500 was up 5 points to close at 5,482. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 53 points to close at 17,858. Gold was up $23 to trade at $2,336 per ounce, while oil was up $1.01 to trade at $81.91 per barrel WTI.
As we move towards the end of the first half of the year, it makes sense to look at history for a moment. Most years (more than 95% of the time) we see a move down in stocks of more than 5% within the calendar year. Heck more than 60% of the time we see a move down of 10% or more during a calendar year. We have not had a move down of even 5% so far this year. Odds are that we will see some kind of disruption sometime during the second half of the year. Doesn’t mean the end of the world. On the contrary it is just the normal course of business for stocks. Without volatility, stocks would carry no risk premium. Just a heads up that the second half of 2024 might not be just like the first half.
We’ll see how the quarter finishes out tomorrow. Enjoy the debate tonight.
Have a nice evening everyone.
