Friends
Economic data is changing the narrative once again. Just this week we have seen weakness in the ISM Manufacturing report, the JOLTS number (job openings) and today’s ADP private payroll release. All this is leading to lower bond yields and the thinking that maybe the Fed can go ahead and start cutting rates as soon as July perhaps. Now, the ISM Services number also released today was a bit stronger than expected, nevertheless the weaker data is outnumbering the stronger data. All of this leads to Friday’s non-farm payroll number. So basically, we seem to be finally seeing the slowdown analysts and the Fed itself have been waiting for. As long as the slowdown is measured then the soft-landing narrative can be in place. Which leads us to stocks…
Stocks seem to be fine with the new/most recent narrative. For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 96 points to finish the day at 38,807. The S&P 500 was up 62 points to close at 5,354. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 330 points to close at 17,187. Gold was up $26 to trade at $2,373 per ounce, while oil was up $.87 to trade at $74.12 per barrel WTI.
Remember, there is a Fed meeting next week. It’s unlikely that we will see any change in interest rates at this time, but what the Fed might do is signal when the first cut (if there is one) is likely to happen. Let’s see how this all plays out over the next couple of weeks. First up will be Friday’s jobs report.
Have a nice evening everyone.
