Reduced Expectations

Jul 19, 2012 | Market Commentary

Friends

We got a trio of unflattering domestic economic reports this morning including a weak Leading Economic Indicators number. The Philly Fed number also indicated a drop in factory production, and the weekly initial jobless claims number went the wrong direction, heading back towards the 400,000 number. Add to that, the growing concerns about Middle East tensions in Syria and Iran which sent oil up again (10% increase in 7 days), and all in all, it was a difficult news day.

On the earnings front, lukewarm numbers are being met with stock price increases which indicates that reduced expectations were already priced in. When stocks rise on what seem like just “ok” numbers, then we know that the bears had driven prices too low and when the stocks don’t drop on the “bad” news then the bears cover (buy) their shorts. The result was another positive day for stocks.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 34 points to close at 12,943. The S&P 500 was up 3 points to finish the day at 1376. Gold was up $10 to trade at $1580 per ounce, and the aforementioned oil was up $2.57 to trade at $92.44 per barrel. So much for lower gasoline prices this summer.

After the close, we get earnings reports from Google and Microsoft, and tomorrow morning we get General Electric among others. We’ll let you know how the week ends.

Have a nice evening everyone.

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