Deal or No Deal/Jobs Report Too Good?

Nov 2, 2018 | Market Commentary

Friends 

Stocks gyrated in a nearly 500 point range for the Dow, as China trade headlines (deal or no deal), a strong jobs number and “disappointing” Apple earnings all weighed on market participants. First, let’s talk about the fantastic jobs report. Payroll gains were much better than expected (250,000 new jobs in October vs. 190,000 estimate), the labor force participation level increased nicely (and still the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%), and wage gains are finally becoming something to get excited about (or worried about if you are an inflation hawk).  Therein, lies the problem. You know the old story- good news is bad news. The bad news is that a jobs report this hot emboldens the Fed and makes the December rate hike almost a given, and encourages a hawkish outlook going forward. As for Apple, their conservative (low ball) guidance for the current quarter was a bit less than analysts expected. So, of course, the shares were taken to the woodshed. Finally, with regards to a trade deal with China, to say there were mixed messages today would be an understatement. But, each headline sent stocks off in a different direction. 

Anyway, for the day the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 110 points to close at 25,270 The S&P 500 was down 17 points to close at 2,723. Gold was down $4 to trade at $1,234 per ounce, while oil was down $.74 to trade at $62.95 per barrel WTI. 

Next up are the mid-term elections. Next week should be interesting. Stay tuned. 

Have a great weekend everyone.

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