Friends
Today marks the end of the 1st quarter and for stocks, it was the best 1st quarter of the year since 1998. The best performing groups of the quarter were technology and financials. The worst group of the quarter was utilities, which is no surprise after the stellar year this group had in 2011. Often what we see in the first quarter of the year is the trash from the previous year rallies. The challenge comes as the year progresses, as often that trash turns out to still be trash. Perhaps this year will be different, but I doubt it.
For the day the Dow ended up 66 points to close at 13,211. The S&P 500 was up 5 points to finish the day at 1408. Only the NASDAQ was down for the day as Apple, down more than 10 points, dragged it down. Gold was up smartly for the day finishing $15 to the upside to close near $1670 per ounce. Oil was up just slightly to finish the day and the week just over $103 per barrel WTI.
It was nice to see us close over 1400 on the S&P 500 on the last day of the quarter. This is a nice psychological number to have as support, and if we are to work our way higher this spring and early summer, 1400 will need to hold firm. We now will enter the first quarter earnings season and we will see if corporate America can continue to squeeze more profitability out of relatively flat revenues. Expectations have been somewhat dampened lately as analysts have been lowering earnings estimates on many companies over the past few months. We could see stocks rally if companies can surprise, but we are concerned that the stronger dollar and higher input costs may be problematic for many US multinational corporations.
We’ll also get the March non-farm payroll number next week, so we have a lot of possible catalysts to deal with over the coming weeks. Stay tuned and we’ll attempt to keep you well informed and up to date.
Have a great weekend everyone.
