Friends
Unfortunately, somewhat as predicted, September was not a good month for stocks. For that matter, August wasn’t very good either making the 3rd quarter of 2023 very challenging for the bulls. If you take out the magnificent seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, etc.) the equal weighted S&P 500 is up less than a half of a percent for the year. Bonds have had an even more difficult 2023 with the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF down almost 3% for the year and the recently mentioned 20-year Treasury bond ETF (TLT) is down more than 11% for the year. The good news is that as we enter the 4th quarter, other than a handful of names, most stocks are priced rather attractively at the moment, certainly not overpriced anyway.
As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 158 points to finish the day at 33,507. The S&P 500 was down 11 points to close at 4,288. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 18 points to close at 13,219. Gold was down $12 to trade at $1,865 per ounce, while oil was down $.72 to trade at $90.99 per barrel WTI.
Even if seasonality starts to favor the bulls, they still have a difficult road ahead as we enter the last quarter of the year. We have strikes, rising oil prices, a possible government shutdown and a dubious earnings season staring us right in the face. But, as I mentioned, other than a very small group of companies, most stocks haven’t done anything this year, and many are down quite a bit for the year. That could be a help should the magnificent seven not be able to carry the water in the 4th quarter. Maybe some of the soldiers can help the generals out. But of course, we will see.
Have a great weekend everyone.
