The Confusing Rally

Oct 5, 2015 | Market Commentary

Friends

As the never ending list of negative pundits endeavor to explain just what is going on in the stock market since Friday morning, stocks just keep pushing higher (as measured by the Dow, stocks have climbed more than 750 points since the Friday morning low). Is it, that with Friday’s lousy jobs report, the odds of the Fed raising rates any time soon has dramatically diminished (bad news is good news, once again)? Is it that the stock market, being a leading indicator, is predicting a better economy six months from now? Or perhaps, as we mentioned Friday, we are veering back towards the TINA environment, where there really are no alternatives to stocks should one want to grow one’s money (considering that interest rates have been at zero seemingly forever).

As for today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 304 points to close at 16,776. The S&P 500 was up 35 points to close at 1987. Gold was down $2 to trade at $1134 per ounce, while oil was up $.86 to trade at $46.40 per barrel WTI.

While market participants scratch their head over this fast sharp rally, it is time to turn our focus to earnings season. In a word, expectations could hardly be lower. If the likelihood of a rate hike has diminished for the time being, perhaps the softening of the U. S. dollar will make multinational company’s shares more attractive. Let’s see if the bulls can keep this train rolling into earnings season.

Recent Posts

Tech Stocks Continue to Drag Market Lower

Tech Stocks Continue to Drag Market Lower

Friends The weakness in tech/AI stocks continues and the market averages, especially the Nasdaq, continue to lose ground as we get closer to year end. Instead of taking a victory lap the stocks that have been the leaders all year long are now cowering nervously in the...

Stocks Mostly Lower after Employment Data Release

Stocks Mostly Lower after Employment Data Release

Friends This morning’s release of the November non-farm payroll number showed that 64,000 new jobs were added, which was better than analysts had expected. The unemployment rate did tick up to 4.6%, which was actually more than expected. It’s hard to determine if this...

Stocks Soft As Economic Data Looms

Stocks Soft As Economic Data Looms

Friends Today was pretty much the same script we have seen over the past couple of weeks. The AI/big tech names came under selling pressure enough to take the market averages into negative territory. It’s hard to read too much into recent market action as we are so...